首先供应方方面,镀锌产品的终上游是热轧带钢,从当前热轧带钢市场格局来看,2017年随着**一系列环境的举措,华北退出热轧带钢产能共计1120万,一度造成供应局势紧张,同时热轧带钢价格钢材市场。据数据监测,连铸热轧带钢企业2017年平均利润高达近850元/吨。且随着冬季采暖大气污染防治措施的推进,热轧带钢的投放量继续缩减,对于镀锌企业来讲,成本将不断攀升。
其次,购买者方面,镀锌产品下游|行业多在龙骨钢、光伏支架、钢结构等方面,据卓创调研,这些企业生产规模分散,购买能力相对不大。在下游企业中,年需求量3万吨以上的企业仅35%,且这50%企业当中,占镀锌带钢和镀锌管供应量的不足50%。因此购买者话语权也相对不大,整体议价能力不高。
第三,新进入者方面,我们分别对应监测镀锌钢带和镀锌管产品的利润,均在80元/吨以下,对于当前钢铁加工企业来讲,不如加工企业利润的一半之多,因此率较低,短期内新进入者威胁不大。
第四,替代品方面,镀锌产品大的替代品是冷轧以及不锈钢。冷轧产品方面,考虑其表面性能稳定性较差,且寿命相对低3-5年,竞争优势不明显。而不锈钢方面,则是其高成本造成的利润差,使得镀锌产品的部分市场是不锈钢难以竞争的。
第五,现有竞争者方面,据卓创数据调研发现,目前镀锌带钢目前产能2190万吨,产能利用率在75-80运行。从需求来看,当前市场缺口不大,但由于终端行业的发展增速稳定,整体需求量与供给量相对吻合。但产品同质化竞争较大,行业利润下滑明显,整体来看,议价能力相对被动。目前镀锌普通产品镀锌量40-60g/㎡,这个站到镀锌产品需求量的75以上,据调研,当前95以上企业能满足此镀锌水准,因此可以看出,供应方很难市场后向联合。
综合来看,当前供应商的议价能力较强,而购买者议价能力较弱,同时新进入者和替代品威胁较低,现有竞争同质化严重,整体分析来讲,镀锌企业可采取的战略是向前发展,即寻求上游企业协议合作机会。
First of all, on the supply side, the final upstream of galvanized products is hot-rolled strip. From the current hot-rolled strip market pattern, in 2017, with a series of national measures to improve the environment, North China withdrew its hot-rolled strip production capacity of 11.2 million tons, once causing a tense supply situation, while the price of hot-rolled strip led the steel market. According to the data monitoring, the average profit of continuous casting and hot rolling strip enterprises in 2017 reached nearly 850 yuan / ton. With the promotion of air pollution control measures for heating in winter, the amount of hot-rolled strip continues to reduce, and the cost will continue to rise for galvanized enterprises.
Secondly, in terms of purchasers, the downstream industries of galvanized products mainly focus on keel steel, photovoltaic support, steel structure, etc. according to Zhuo Chuang's research, these enterprises have scattered production scale and relatively small purchasing power. In the downstream enterprises, only 35% of the enterprises with an annual demand of more than 30000 tons account for less than 50% of the supply of galvanized steel strip and galvanized pipe. Therefore, the buyer's discourse power is relatively small and the overall bargaining power is not high.
Third, for new entrants, we respectively monitor the profits of galvanized steel strip and galvanized pipe products, which are all below 80 yuan / ton. For current steel processing enterprises, they are not as much as half of the profits of processing enterprises, so the return on new investment is low, and the threat of new entrants is not great in the short term.
Fourth, in terms of substitutes, the largest substitutes for galvanized products are cold rolling and stainless steel. For cold rolling products, considering the poor stability of surface properties and relatively low service life of 3-5 years, the competitive advantage is not obvious. On the other hand, the high cost of stainless steel results in a profit margin, which makes it difficult to compete in some markets of galvanized products.
Fifthly, in terms of existing competitors, according to the research of Zhuocang data, the current capacity of galvanized steel strip is 21.9 million tons, and the capacity utilization rate is 75% - 80%. From the perspective of demand, the current market gap is not large, but due to the stable growth of the terminal industry, the overall demand and supply are relatively consistent. But the product homogeneity competition is large, the industry profits decline obviously, on the whole, the bargaining power is relatively passive. At present, the amount of galvanized common products is 40-60g / ㎡, more than 75% of the demand for galvanized products from this station. According to the survey, more than 95% of the enterprises can meet the level of galvanized products, so it can be seen that it is difficult for suppliers to integrate the market backward.
Generally speaking, suppliers have strong bargaining power, while buyers have weak bargaining power. At the same time, the threat of new entrants and substitutes is low, and the existing competition is homogenized seriously. Overall analysis, the strategy that galvanized enterprises can adopt is to develop forward integration, that is, to seek the upstream enterprise agreement cooperation opportunities.